The war with Iran has effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route where about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply passes through. If shipping through the strait is completely blocked, it would reduce more oil supply than the 1979-1980 crisis, when disruptions from the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War cut 14% of global oil and caused gold to soar 400%, from around $200 to $843 per ounce. FX Empire analysts say gold could reach $6,000-$6,300 per ounce in the near term, with a longer-term target of $8,250 per ounce if the crisis persists over the coming months, and potentially $8,400 per ounce in a prolonged, severe scenario. History shows that major oil supply shocks during global conflicts can drive gold prices dramatically higher.

The conflict is already driving major price shocks for Americans at the pump. Diesel has hit $4 per gallon, the highest since April 2024, and is expected to rise to $4.25-$4.45 in the coming days, while gasoline is approaching $3.20 per gallon and could climb to $3.30 soon. Analysts warn that Brent crude oil could reach $76 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, and if the conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains the way it is for the next five weeks, prices could surge to $100 or even $120 per barrel. Economists describe the scale of these price shocks as “absolutely massive,” noting that markets may be underestimating the economic impact of a prolonged war.

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