GOLD LIKELY BULLISH FOR YEARS TO COME

Gold and silver continue to rise Thursday as concerns over the Greek debt crisis intensify. Nouriel Roubini says sovereign debt from the U.S. to Japan and Greece is likely to ultimately lead to higher inflation or government defaults. "The thing I worry about is the buildup of sovereign debt," said Roubini. Roubini predicts if the problem isn't addressed, ,nations will either fail to meet obligations or suffer inflation as officials "monetize" their debts, or print money to tackle the shortfalls. Fears of inflation continue to be legitimized, and credit ratings downgrades of Greece, Spain and Portugal, are fueling buying of gold as a haven from risk.
In other commodities, crude oil is slightly up despite concerns that U.S. inventories are increasing and credit-rating downgrades on Greece and Portugal may stall global fuel demand recovery. "If the situation with Greece gets worse, probably $80 won't stay as the floor," said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna.

Stocks are up Thursday, bucking concerns about Greece, as investors focus on falling jobless claims and positive earnings – most notably a surge in Exxon Mobil earnings.

The dollar declined 0.6% against the euro Thursday, but rose 0.2% against the yen. The U.S. dollar is likely to continue its fall against near-term euro strength.

In other news, the senate officially commenced debate on Wall Street reform Wednesday night. Debate had been delayed by the GOP, but Republicans waived their right to block a reform bill as it became apparent that Democrats had obtained the necessary 60 votes to end the filibuster. Democrats have agreed to some key changes in the proposed bill. Most notably, the reforms will no longer tax banks to create a $50 billion pot that could be tapped when regulators unwind failing financial institutions, according to a congressional aide.
Returning to gold, prices are likely to remain bullish in the near term, and New York-based CPM Group says buyers pro-gold attitude may run for years. According to CPM analysts, even if economic conditions improve, "investment demand is projected and expected to remain elevated. Just as people who lived through the Great Depression carried with them certain savings and spending habits borne out of that economic cataclysm, it is anticipated that individuals and institutional investors will retain for many years lessons learned related to the reliance on paper financial assets, with and without high levels of leverage attached to them." In further support for a pro-gold outlook, the Aden sisters assert in their April 27 commentary, "We could see gold shoot up to the $2000-$3000 level within the next two years." This is the kind of upside that is attractive to potential investors.
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