GOLD HOLDS PROMISE FOR THE FUTURE

Gold started the day higher and is now trading at near unchanged levels in the first half-hour of trading. Silver is up $.02 and oil is up $.52. The dollar has turned weak, down 33 basis points and the Dow is down 2 points. The precious metals are now looking constructive and I suspect that they should continue to head higher over the next couple of months as the seasonalities favor a rise in the gold market. Overnight the euro rose solidly and that pushed gold up $8.40 in overnight trading. While some of those gains were erased, nevertheless gold started the day in New York on a steady note.

Analyst Mathew Collier told the Dow Jones Wire Service, "Gold holds a promise for the future." They said, "The medium term looks promising for the gold sectors, market makers and retail players as they see several motives for their natural bullishness." They further commented that investors are progressively looking more to commodities as a hedge against inflationary pressures and a weaker U.S. dollar. Moreover, they state that the credit crisis will continue to set back new production from mines thereby restricting the supply coming to market. In addition, Thomas Winmill, a portfolio manager at the Midas Fund said that gold prices could hit $1,200 an ounce in the second quarter and $1,400 an ounce by the end of the year. This is consistent with many of the forecasts that we see from major banks and brokerage firms.

That latest data from South African gold producers indicates that production declined 5.8% year-on-year. The Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data declined to 72.5 from 73.6 in February. Retail sales in February posted an unexpected rise in spite of the severe winter weather across large parts of the country last month. This suggests there could be some economic rebound beginning. However, there is a long way to go before the economy really shows any strength. A report on CNBC indicated that 1 out of 7 people in Florida is receiving food stamps. Their unemployment rate is above 11% and there is no prospect for new businesses to come into Florida. Their foreclosure rates and value of homes versus mortgages is just dreadful.

All of this suggests that there are many states in the nation including California, where the economic conditions are worse than the national average. Some of these states are critically important to the overall health of the country. We have to begin to worry about state, city and county pension obligations as well as the deficits and debt that they have accumulated. Some counties and state governments may be on the brink of bankruptcy. All of this is reminiscent of the situation going on in Europe with Greece and other countries. We have not even begun to deal with these issues and I suspect there will be some difficult times over the next two years. These are all among the many reasons to invest in gold. Certainly the government will have to continue to pursue fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in an effort to pick up the economy. All of that means a bullish outlook for gold over the longer term.

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