EVERYTHING GOLD IS NEW AGAIN

December 29, 2010

Everything Gold Is New Again

by Shayne Mcguire

Newsweek
December 29, 2010

In stormy times, investors look for something solid to hang onto—something like gold. The World Bank president himself, Robert Zoellick, suggested in November that the world’s economies could use the old reliable metal to help stabilize their currencies. For these and many other reasons, professional gold-fund manager Shayne McGuire argues that gold has nowhere to go but up. The following essay is adapted from McGuire’s latest book, Hard Money: Taking Gold to a Higher Investment Level….

Every currency in history has eventually fallen against gold—most dramatically in times like these, times of surging liabilities and an increasing inability to meet them. Gold is the only credible currency whose quantity cannot be expanded at will to meet the spending needs of governments in distress. By its very nature it remains scarce and rises in value as the supply of paper money grows. And I think it’s safe to say that following the most dramatic credit crisis since the Great Depression—one that is continuing to produce ripple effects, like events in Greece that are broadening into Europe itself—we are likely to see historic investment shifts that will provide great opportunities.

One major beneficiary will be gold. I strongly believe that present financial conditions are about to transform the investment strategies of the world’s largest investment funds in a way that will cause gold to surge substantially higher….

Today’s situation is singularly dire, but it won’t last. Gold will never outperform stocks and bonds over the long run, because it does not grow or produce a cash flow. But in light of the challenges facing most other investment classes at present, investors should think carefully about gold. There are no reliable models to determine if it is "overvalued." What if the world’s investors decided to transfer 3 to 5 percent of wealth out of cash and into hard money? Considering that only 0.6 percent of global financial assets is currently held in the metal, such a movement could push gold prices into the tens of thousands of dollars per ounce. But if we reached that point, would it finally mean that gold had become insanely expensive—or simply that the world had less faith in the printed paper debentures of profligate governments? Which currency is more trustworthy? Which one is the real money?

McGuire is the head of global research and manages the $500 million GBI Gold Fund for Teacher Retirement System of Texas, one of the world’s largest pension funds.

Read full article here.

†This material has been prepared for private use. Although the information in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Goldline does not guarantee its accuracy and such information may be incomplete or condensed. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

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