Metals Trading About Unchanged
by Joe Battaglia
Posted: April 17, 2008
Metals are trading
at about unchanged levels with silver slightly higher and gold less than $1
lower. Oil has reached a new all time
record high of $115.54 a barrel. Some
profit taking has caused it to ease back slightly from those levels, but it
still remains in that $115 range. The
dollar has rebounded 15 basis points off of yesterdays significant decline
trading at 71.56 on the index. Analysts
are saying that gold is now "eyeing" resistance at $960.30 an ounce. I think that once spot gold pushes above
$950 an ounce, it will be on its way to the $1,000 level. The conditions that have driven gold up to
these levels remain in place there seems to be no relief in sight.
Today, Merrill
Lynch announced a huge loss and laid off over 3,000 people. This is clear evidence that the problems in
the banking sector are far from over.
Moreover, members of the Federal Reserve Board seem to be speaking every
day about this crisis, trying to reassure people they are doing everything they
can to stop the crisis and moderate the recession. Make no mistake about the country is in recession and we are now
seeing lots of retail store chains filing for bankruptcy protection. As they go out of business, the malls get in
trouble and other stores in those malls see declining sales because of
declining traffic. In other words, this
is like a snowball rolling down hill.
Once it starts to gain momentum it just gets bigger and bigger. It will take some time before this crisis
runs its course.
In the meantime, we
have to wonder what the conditions will be when the credit derivatives crisis
is over. For those who think it might
be quickly over, simply have a look at what is happening in the credit default
swap market. Credit default swaps were
$45 trillion a month or so ago. They
are now $62 trillion. Everyone is
scrambling to find some way of keeping these junk assets on their books. Credit default swaps are an expensive way to
do that. It clearly demonstrates once
these problems start to unwind, the leverage in the system will be an enormous
burden on all of the banks and financial institutions.
Turning back to the
gold market, we see Dow Jones reporting if gold surpasses $951 an ounce it will
revisit $1,000. That is consistent with
the forecast of many other analysts.
James Moore of the Bullion Desk says that gold will next test chart
resistance at $955 an ounce. Clearly,
if you look at the forecasts of the analysts, before the year is over we will
probably see gold in the $1,100 to $1,200 range. That presents an excellent investment opportunity from today's
levels. Anytime you have upside
potential of 15% or 16% over the course of an eight or nine-month period, you
should take advantage of that.
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