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Daily Commentary

Dollar Has A Huge Problem



by Joe Battaglia
Posted: September 24, 2009

Gold started the day higher, but gave ground very rapidly to fall back to the $1,000 level, while silver fell back to $16.48.  The decline was related to a sharply rising dollar, up 45 basis points to 76.50 and an aggressive drop in oil, down $3.09 at $65.90 a barrel.  The dollar rose and commodities fell as the housing data helped pump up the dollar.  That put the gold market on the defensive and resulted in the correction today.

George Montepeque, a director at Platts said at the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index Seminar that the gold price rise in dollar terms is an indication that the currency has problems that are unlikely to go away, said Dow Jones.  His direct quote is: "It tells me the dollar has a huge problem and I don't think it will improve."  Nevertheless, you will get these days where there is data that causes the dollar to rally and puts pressure on commodities, including gold.  Perhaps also a decision by the ECB, the Swiss Bank and others to continue to provide dollar liquidity to their financial system is another factor that is supporting the dollar.  Barclay's Capital analyst Kevin Norrish told Dow Jones Wire Service that there is more upside left for commodities this year.  They reported that Norrish favors gold and other commodities. 

August existing homes sales fell 2.7% in August.  That is the key data that caused the dollar rally.  Moreover, inventories have fallen, slipping 10.8% at the end of August.  However, there is a very large shadow inventory that still needs to be accounted for.  In addition, 31% of the sales of existing homes were foreclosure sales.  When one digs into the details of these reports, they do not look rosy.  The median existing home price fell 12.5% year-on-year.  The inventory of unsold homes is at an 8½-month supply.

All of this data suggested that the economy remains weak and that the Fed and other central banks will continue to be accommodative.  Stocks, after opening higher by about 30 points gave up those gains are trading down 64 on the Dow.  Given the views of the Barclay's and the Platts analyst and others, some view the dip in gold as a buying opportunity.  We will see if buying comes in to support the market later in the day, but there is a good chance that it will do so as it has on previous dips.

To acquire gold on the correction and buy the dip, call Goldline at 1-877-341-2646.  To receive the free information package including a free CD interview with Peter Grandich, call Goldline at 1-877-341-2646.

Investors should ask Goldline to explain the features, benefits and cost structure of the various gold and silver investments that are available to you.  Select those that best meet your own personal and individual investing needs and objectives.  Investors looking for low transaction costs may wish to consider bullion assets such as American Eagles, Krugerrands, Canadian Maple Leafs, Silver Bags or Silver Bars.  However, the Price Guarantee Program is not available with these assets.

If you would like to take advantage of the Price Guarantee Program, which provides you with a two-week window of opportunity in which to re-price your order in the event of a correction, you must select assets with some collectible value such as 20 Francs, Double Eagles and Silver Dollars.  Call Goldline at 1-877-341-2646 for further information on the Price Guarantee Program.

To receive the free information package on gold investing call Goldline at 1-877-341-2646. You will also receive the Client Account Agreement, a company brochure and a Coin Facts Risk Disclosure Booklet, read these carefully before you make an investment.  Call Goldline at 1-877-341-2646 now to receive your free information package.

 

You should carefully read Goldline's Account and Storage Agreement and our risk disclosure booklet, Coin Facts for Investors and Collectors to Consider. These provide important information that you should consider before investing in precious metals. Goldline's spread, which is the difference between the price we sell our products and the price we buy them back, generally ranges between 5% to 20% on our most common bullion products and 30% to 35% on all other products including our popular semi-numismatic coins such as the European francs, proof coins and graded coins. The market must go up enough to overcome this spread before an actual profit is achieved. All markets go up and down. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Coins are a long-term, three- to five-year, preferably five- to ten-year investment. We believe precious metals are suitable for 5% to 20% of the average portfolio though others may recommend a different percentage. Please see Goldline's risk disclosure materials for additional information.

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