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Goldline Week in Review

Release Date:  Saturday, September 28, 2019
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METALS MARKET UPDATE – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Gold prices were overall lower for the week after choppy trading.
  • The dollar rose against many major currencies.
  • U.S. business investment contracted more sharply than expected and corporate profit growth was "tepid".
  • Gold ended the week at $1,496.90/oz. Silver closed at $17.60/oz.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/global-precious/precious-gold-set-for-weekly-loss-as-dollar-firms-on-safe-haven-inflows-idUKL3N26I0BB?rpc=401&

METALS NEWS –

A number of analysts see gold rising to $1600 before challenging the prior record high of nearly $2,000 an ounce.  

  • Joni Teves, precious metals strategist at banking giant UBS, upgraded her forecast for gold to $1600 by the end of the year. "In a report Tuesday, Joni Teves, precious metals strategist at UBS, said that she is upgrading her gold forecast as she sees prices pushing through $1,600 an ounce in the next 12 months. She added that she expects gold prices to push to $1,600 by the end of the year." https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-09-26/Gold-s-summer-rally-is-just-the-start-UBS.htm
  • TD Securities believes that several fundamentals will send gold to $1600 including the Federal Reserve's intervention into the so-called "repo trades.". "The New York Fed announced that they would increase their daily repo transactions from the previously announced $75 billion to $100 billion through October 10th, and also offer two-week repo trades as well, which they increased from $30 billion to $60 billion, which should all help gold move into $1,600/oz territory." https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-could-reach-1-600-once-focus-turns-to-fundamentals-td-securities-201909261750
  • Speaking at the Denver Gold Forum, Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer at US Global Investors, said that gold could rise to $8,000 even absent a world crisis. "Holmes explained that worldwide money printing triggered by attempts to stimulate economic activity could lead to a substantial gold price increase. 'Gold can take off without (a) world-coming-to-an-end scenario … If gold was US$250 in 2001 and gold ran to US$1,900 — well, you've got an eight times increase. Gold then fell to US$1,000 and laid there for over five years. So if it went up another eight times that's US$8,000. Well, that doesn't mean the world's coming to an end.'" https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/gold-investing/frank-holmes-gold-reach-8000-without-crisis/
  • Egon von Greyerz, Founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management, wrote that gold and silver are entering the "explosive" phase with gold prices rising above $2,000 an ounce. "The next explosive phase in the precious metals market has just started…. The masses will be alerted when gold reaches $2,000, which won't take very long. That's when lazy journalists and MSM (Main Stream Media) will start writing about gold and at that point it will even reach the front pages. These reporters, who can be from any country, do not realize that gold in 2019 has reached new highs in most currencies except in US dollars and Swiss Francs. But it is only a matter of time before gold will also hit new highs in these two currencies." https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-buckle-up-we-have-just-entered-the-explosive-phase-in-gold-silver/
  • The gold-silver ratio is signaling high precious metals price with silver enjoying the biggest boost according to technical analyst Christopher Aaron. "Three multi-year trend breaks have been observed in the gold to silver ratio since the start of the millennium. On average, the subsequent surge in silver has lasted for 4.6 months and resulted in a 77.6% gain in priceInvestors should prepare for a price spike in silver that should target the mid-$20's at minimum within the next 4-6 months." https://www.silver-phoenix500.com/article/silver-price-forecast-rare-signal-says-surge-ahead
ECONOMIC NEWS –

Even before the Democrats announcement of impeachment proceedings against President Trump, analysts and "ultra-rich" investors were warning of a pending recession and fall in the stock market. And the new impeachment proceedings may further imperil the economy.

  • Gluskin Sheff's chief economist and strategist issued a dire warning that the economy will likely skip into recession within the next 12 months even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to zero. "[A] according to Rosenberg, it's just a matter of time until economic data sours and Powell is forced to resume easing in the coming months. 'I think that they'll go in October and December and through 2020,' he added. Whether the Fed cuts all the way to zero or not, Rosenberg speculates the outcome will be the same: Recession." https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/22/recession-will-hit-the-us-within-12-months-david-rosenberg-warns.html
  • Yahoo! Finance reported that investors may face a replay of the 2018 "market massacre" with a plummet in the stock markets. "'We could easily correct 15% to 20% from here. The market sentiment is that low rates are good for equities and at a certain point we are going to start to say that low rates mean low growth. I really think the market is sick at this point and we have mis-diagnosed the patient' … In other words, sleep with one eye open investors. The rawhide belt is never too far away." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-stock-market-could-crash-within-3-months-180959350.html