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Top Gold Forecasters See Record Gold in 2012

Release Date: 
Thursday, November 3, 2011

A recent Bloomberg survey of the most accurate gold price forecasters tracked by Bloomberg indicates gold prices are expected to reach a new record by March because economic growth is stagnating and Europe’s debt crisis is unresolved. The predictions are from eight of the top ten analysts tracked by Bloomberg over the past eight quarters. According to the median estimates compiled by Bloomberg, gold may rise approximately 13 percent to $1,950 an ounce by the end of the first quarter.

"There’s huge potential for gold in the coming years," said Jochen Hitzfeld, an analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich. Hitzfeld was the most accurate forecaster tracked by Bloomberg for the past two years. "Investors are buying gold. That’s reinforced by buying from central banks." Thailand, Bolivia, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan added gold to their reserves in September, International Monetary Fund data show. Switzerland’s central bank said Oct. 31 it returned to a profit in the first nine months as gold holdings helped counter losses on currency reserves.

"There is a loss of trust in the entire financial system and urgent need for safe-haven investment," said Ronald Stoeferle at Erste Group Bank AG in Vienna, the second most- accurate forecaster in the past three months. "The environment for gold is just perfect."

"When we look at gold five years from now, we will say gold was wildly cheap," said Jason Schenker, the president of Prestige Economics LLC in Austin, Texas, and the fifth-best gold forecaster tracked by Bloomberg. "What happens to gold is going to hinge on what happens to the dollar, and that is going to be influenced by what happens in Europe and monetary policy."

(Source: "Top Gold Forecasters See Bullion Rallying to Record by March: Commodities," Bloomberg, November 2, 2011)

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†This material has been prepared for private use. Although the information in this commentary has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, Goldline does not guarantee its accuracy and such information may be incomplete or condensed. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

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